You all need to see this before you bet today's game

[Michelangelo]

Guys, I went back and dug out some research that I did and posted for the Patriots / Giants Super Bowl of 2012 and for all the Super Bowls since '94 that led up to that game. It's a turnover study that predicted the Giants win and cover for that game and predicted the outcome for the previous SB games predicated on the cumulative Playoff turnover margin for the two contending teams.

I haven't had the time to update it and won't today. Wanted to get to it this week but never got there. Maybe one of you can update the study for us from 2013 to 2024. If not you will have to rely on the results of the old study like I will. They ae extremely predictive.

Here's the old study copied from 2012:

You guys know that I've focused on turnovers to direct me to this year's winners. Sticking with that theme but the info ain't gonna be easy to do any predicting from.

I went back and looked at all the Playoff games back to and including '94. So anything I quote going forward here will have come from thatr timeframe.

Let's start with this number to show you how important turnovers will be to the outcome of this game.

Since '94 the winner of the Super Bowl was 13-1-3 to win the turnover battle in that game. The only exception was in '05 when the Steelers committed 2 turnovers to the Seahawks 1 and still won the game, 21-10. In three games the turnovers were split.

Here's the breakdown by round:

48-10-14 WC to advance
49-15-8 Div to advance
26-4-4 CC to advance
13-1-3 SB winner to win the turnover battle

So now that we see that the team who wins the turnover battle is 13-1 to win the Super Bowl we've gotta look at these two teams outa that lens.

As teams morph as the season progresses, I have decided to only use te second half of the season to look at turnover ratios.

20-3 That's the Patriot turnover ratio for the second half of the season excluding Playoffs.

13-13 That's the Giant's turnover ratio for the second half of the season excluding Playoffs.

But here's where things get tricky.

6-1 That's the Giant turnover ratio in the Playoffs.

2-5 That's the Patriot turnover ratio in the Playoffs. Yes. Negative. They have lost the turnover battle in both their Playoff games this year and yet they buck the odds and continue to advance.

So the question is will the Pats get back to their late regular season form and/or will the Giants get back to their late season form or will they continue their post season tendencies which have been very different?

Here are the Pre SB Playoff ratios of all SB participants back to '94 and the SB result.

2011 // NEn ? NYG ? // NEn 2-5; NYG 6-1 (Nyg WC) (net NYG +8)
2010 // GBy 31 Pit 25 // GBy 8-5; Pit 4-4 (GBy WC) (net GBy +3 ) // Cover GBy -2'
2009 // NOr 31 Ind 17 // NOr 7-1; Ind 5-2 (net NOr +4) // Cover NOr +4'
2008 // Pit 27 Azo 23 // Pit 6-1; Azo 12-3 (Azo WC) (net Azo +4) // Cover AZo +7
2007 // NYG 17 NEn 14 // NYG 6-1; NEn 4-3 (NYG WC) (net NYG +4) // Cover NYG +12'
2006 // Ind 29 Chi 17 // Ind 8-6; Chi 5-2 (Ind WC) (net Chi +1) // Cover Indy -7
2005 // Pit 21 Sea 10 // Pit 6-2 ; Sea 5-3 (Pit WC) (net Pit +2) // Cover Pit -4
2004 // NEn 24 Phi 21 // NEn 7-0; Phi 3-1 (net NEn +5) // Cover Phi +7
2003 // NEn 32 Car 29 // NEn 6-3; Car 9-1 (Car WC) (net Car +5) // Cover Car +7
2002 // TBy 48 Oak 21 // TBy 8-3; Oak 6-2 (net TBy +1) // Cover TBy +4
2001 // NEn 20 StL 17 // NEn 4-1; St L 10-3 (net StL +4) // Cover NEn +14
2000 // Bal 34 NYG 7 // Bal 7-2; NYG 8-5 (Bal WC) (net Bal +2) // Cover Bal -3
1999 // St L 23 Ten 16 // St L 5-6; 8-7 (Ten WC) (net Ten +2) // Cover Push
1998 // Den 34 Atl 19 // DEn 9-0; Atl 5-3 (net Den +7) // Cover Denver -7'
1997 // Den 31 GBy 24 // Den 6-6; GBy 4-3 (Den WC) (net GBy +1) // Cover DEn +11'
1996 // GBy 35 NEn 21 // GBy 8-3; NEn 6-4 (net GBy +3) // Cover Push
1995 // Dal 27 Pit 17 // Dal 3-1; Pit 4-3 (net Dal +1) // Cover Pit +13'
1994 // SFo 49 SDo 26 // SFo 7-2; SDo 1-4 (net SFo +8) // Cover SFo -18

THe results of the 2012 game were NYG 21- (NEn) 17 as 2' underdogs

Here's what I see looking at those isolations:

Since '94 the WC teams who make it to the SB are 9-0-1 ATS.

2025:

Playoff turnover differential:

KCy -1
Philly +10

Net Philly +11

Please also notice that Philly's +11 Playoff turnover margin is the highest of all the games I studied '94 through 2012.

///

My play:

Philly +1 -108 (vs KCy) in New Orleans

///

Buona Fortuna

 

[whiskers2]

Great information. Thanks for all your hard work this season. Fly Eagles Fly. On it with you.

 

[exploited17]

I believe the SU record is 7-3 for wildcard teams.
Good stuff but on the flip side is just as many good stats for KC
Team in rematches favors KC
Teams who scored 40 or more are awful in the SB.
So on and so on. Kind of a toss up game though I took a small play on KC

Key imo is KC needs to rush the ball a bit and stop Eagles from not getting over 120. Make medium and long passes.
Spags has never allowed a 100 yard rusher with KC a coordinator in playoffs.
I think it will be a good close game
GL

 

[Michelangelo]

Great information. Thanks for all your hard work this season. Fly Eagles Fly. On it with you.

Good luck, whiskers. Good to see you still around.

I believe the SU record is 7-3 for wildcard teams.
Good stuff but on the flip side is just as many good stats for KC
Team in rematches favors KC
Teams who scored 40 or more are awful in the SB.
So on and so on. Kind of a toss up game though I took a small play on KC

Key imo is KC needs to rush the ball a bit and stop Eagles from not getting over 120. Make medium and long passes.
Spags has never allowed a 100 yard rusher with KC a coordinator in playoffs.
I think it will be a good close game
GL

I know that there is a lot of stuff dug up for this game but have you ever seen a 9-0-1 ATS record generated from such an important stat as turnovers? And Philly has the best Playoff turnover margin (+11) of the nineteen games studied.

Good luck, exploited. You're a solid handicapper.

 

[exploited17]

Well,KC does only have 1 turnover last 9 games. Can you get better than that?

 

[G-Man!]

Turnovers have always been the momentum killers. BUT when and where on the filed is what really matters.

KC would have lost Last year if they didnt get the GIFT punt turnover inside the RED ZONE of SF late in the 3rd quarter.

These games are always going to be won with the turnovers.
Its more apparent when a team gets here on turnovers.

Historically you can just look at prior week games and see that a team won on 5 turnvers and the next week the team fails.
This is especially true if the loser was a big favorite that week.

Its extremely accurate in College games because the talent of the winning team was instantly over priced the next week because they won SU as a big dog with the gift of 5 turnoivers.

The Chiefs also got calls that are just as impactful as turnovers to win games.
The Bills game was just that. Bad calls gave KC the advantage - which would have lost that game, instead of winning.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Good luck, whiskers. Good to see you still around.



I know that there is a lot of stuff dug up for this game but have you ever seen a 9-0-1 ATS record generated from such an important stat as turnovers? And Philly has the best Playoff turnover margin (+11) of the nineteen games studied.

Good luck, exploited. You're a solid handicapper.

I thought the 9-0-1 is the record of W/C teams who make the Super Bowl, not in correlation to turnovers, unless I read it wrong

 

[exploited17]

I thought the 9-0-1 is the record of W/C teams who make the Super Bowl, not in correlation to turnovers, unless I read it wrong

Yeah that is what I was referencing anyways.
7-3 SU.
We all know TO winner likely wins the game then using Phillies TO ration in the playoffs to say they win the TO battle in the SB which means they win doesn't make sense to me.
KC just doesn't turn the ball over so I just don't see the correlation here. No problem with people picking the Eagles. I understand they are good and well rounded. I don't have any crazy stats that favor KC far and way to win here. The eye test also doesn't favor KC much if any.

Since '94 the winner of the Super Bowl was 13-1-3 to win the turnover battle in that game. The only exception was in '05 when the Steelers committed 2 turnovers to the Seahawks 1 and still won the game, 21-10. In three games the turnovers were split.

Seahawks got fucked on bad penalties in that game. I remember being so pissed watching that game as not only did I bet them but Seattle is one of my favorite teams

 

[pizza]

good work
i am using this in my thought process

 

[Michelangelo]

I thought the 9-0-1 is the record of W/C teams who make the Super Bowl, not in correlation to turnovers, unless I read it wrong

It correlates to plus Playoff turnover differential in the Playoff games for each WC team who makes it to the SB preceding the Super Bowl.

You can look at the isolations I did and figure it out if I'm still not clear.

Philly is +10
Kansas City is -1

Playoff turnover differential = Philly +11

 

[Loves2kickass]

Great work. I find that each turnover is worth arguably about 4 points. Turnovers are generically imputed in pts per 100 yds. It's especially noticeable in the figures if a turnover gives an opponent a shorter field and they score.

 

[Alpine]

mich we go back along way from football to harness racing with Rosie Ref Crackpipe from ST.
As always appreciate all your input.
I have Philly as a PK for 3 units
Under 51 for 4 units
1 unit parlay
All lines from my local

 

[Michelangelo]

mich we go back along way from football to harness racing with Rosie Ref Crackpipe from ST.
As always appreciate all your input.
I have Philly as a PK for 3 units
Under 51 for 4 units
1 unit parlay
All lines from my local

Alpine!!!! Good to see ya, man. I miss all those guys. I never made it out to Chicago to the track with you guys. Sure wish I did now. Bob still posts here as CP. I connect with him once in a while. Good guy. Lost touch with all the rest. I think someone said that cancer got the ref. Whish I knew how Mark and Rosie are doing. Those were great times on the internet.

Good luck, Alpine.

 

[ripper]

Good luck to you.
Most of all, enjoy the game!

 

[Biz]

Good info

Unfortunately turnovers are random and unpredictable

 

[Michelangelo]

Good luck to you.
Most of all, enjoy the game!

Another blast from the past. Hope you're well ripper.

Good luck today.

 

[Michelangelo]

Good info

Unfortunately turnovers are random and unpredictable

Did you read the post? Did you study the isolations? The cumulative Playoff turnover differentials are very predictable. Is 9-0-1 ATS good enough for your predictability standards?

If not good luck just the same.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Did you read the post? Did you study the isolations? The cumulative Playoff turnover differentials are very predictable. Is 9-0-1 ATS good enough for your predictability standards?

If not good luck just the same.

He's incorrect but to each their own. Trends such as yours and brief info that I mentioned do help. Of course turnovers are random but to say you can't have ways to account for them isn't true.

 

[Coaster]

Turnovers are huge, only thing is they are unpredictable. One season they lead the league and are near the bottom the next year.
Same team different result. GL

 

[JohnnyMags]

Sounds good to me .... Good Luck